It's the worst drought in 1,000 years, say NASA scientists. One would have to go back in time 500 years before America was discovered to find its equal.

The entire state of California is drying out, 60 percent is in “exceptional” (D4) drought, the highest classification, and an additional 25 percent is experiencing “extreme” (D3) drought.

But it's not just the Sunshine State; it's every state. California has the largest economy, the largest population, and the largest agricultural production. If California goes under, the U.S. could descend with her into a financial abyss. It would make the Great Depression seem like an inconvenience.

Droughts are not easily book-ended by dates. They come unannounced and leave without a fare-thee-well. It is only after their withering effects that they can be dated. Looking back, the epic dry-out started 15 years ago. The question on everyone's mind is: When will it end? The answer, though not carved in stone, is not comforting.

The term mega-drought is a descriptive noun that appears in the news with increasing frequency. It's defined as a drought that lasts 20 years or more. The hope is that the term is a panicky exaggeration. But even if it lasts “only” five more years, the economic, social, and even geologic ruin, will leave permanent scars on people and land.

Subjectively, the drought can be described as bone-dry lake beds, hundreds of thousands of fertile acres lying fallow, orchids dying of thirst, farmers calling well drillers pleading for help, “No Swimming” signs posed where there is no water in sight, and houseboats moored on parking lots.

Objectively, it can be precisely measured by the water level in the nation's largest reservoir, Lake Mead. Forty million people depend upon the lake for electricity and water. It is too big to fail. Nevertheless, it is doing just that. Its death march seems unstoppable.

During the last five months, Mead's elevation has decreased an astonishing 65 feet. Its current (June 21) elevation is 1,075.13 feet. If the lake falls 1.5 inches to an even 1,075.00 feet, emergency measures will be triggered.

Water will be rationed to Nevada and Arizona. In California, water customers will be required to reduce consumption by 25 percent. This seems inevitable since inflows are only 53 percent of normal.

As Lake Mead continues to dwindle so will its electrical production. At 1,073 feet power output will be reduced to 50 percent of capacity.

Three hundred miles to the northeast of Hoover Dam, the Glen Canyon Dam blocks passage of the Colorado River to form Lake Powell. It is obligated to release a specified amount of water to aid its sister dam. This year it was 25 percent below the minimum requirement.

Lake Powell is only half full. If the lake level drops more, its ability to provide electricity for its six million customers will be compromised. Lake Powell and Lake Mead are at the mercy of a shrinking Colorado River and a diminishing snow-pack.

The dominoes are lined up, waiting for the first one to fall.

As the price of water increases, so too will the cost of produce from California's Central Valley, possibly by 6 percent this year.

If the drought continues, more farmland will be fallowed. Last year 400,000 acres went unplanted, this year that could double. Expect even successful farms to go under.

Unemployment will rise. In some communities it is 40 percent, and it's likely to get worse. That will ripple through the community affecting other businesses.

Property values will suffer. “You're going to see everybody hit, from home sellers to home buyers. You're going to see that this summer,” said real estate expert, Pej Barlavi.

There have been mega-droughts in California that have lasted 100 years. Scientists fear that another mega-drought may have begun 15 years ago.

The last domino to topple: mass emigration.

California's population of 40 million is ecologically unsustainable. Economic necessity and environmental desertification will force many to migrate, but how many?

If slightly more than 2 percent of the state's residents take to the road, that would create a throng of one million vagabonds, a mass exodus equaling that of the Okies---as Californians called them---who fled the Dust Bowl states in the '30s.

Today, nature has taken us full circle. In the '30s, the Okies streamed to California for refuge. Soon the Californian “Okies” will migrate ---to where?

Sincerely,

Bob Scroggins

New Milford, PA